Today, No Labels is proud to share a new “Interested Parties Memo” that makes it clear that the established parties in Washington are fundamentally misreading the political climate heading into the 2024 presidential race.
One year out from Election Day, the prevailing narrative from both likely candidates – President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump – is that the stakes are so high, that the future of the country is at risk if the other guy wins and every effort must be made to quash any third-party challenges, such as a potential No Labels Unity ticket.
But as the memo lays out, the fearmongering is built on faulty assumptions, and what’s more, there’s a real path to victory for a viable third party in the 2024 election.
Check out the memo here and below:
MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NO LABELS
DATE: OCT. 30, 2023
RE: TRUMP/BIDEN CAMPAIGNS ARE A HOUSE OF CARDS
For months, D.C. elites have been sowing fear and doubt about the No Labels effort to get on the ballot in 2024.
An unprecedented share of voters is seeking an alternative to Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024, but D.C. elites keep pushing a different narrative that:
- An independent can’t win; and
- It can only “spoil” the election in favor of Trump because he has a hardcore base that will never abandon him, while support for Biden is soft.
In fact, an independent presidential candidate has a chance to win the support of as much as three in five American voters.
Here’s why the opening is so big, and the critics of the No Labels effort are so wrong:
1) Trump’s Hardcore Base is Small, Representing Only 18 Percent of the Overall Electorate.
Trump does indeed have an unshakeable base – the people Trump infamously said would still vote for him if he shot somebody “in the middle of Fifth Avenue.”
But No Labels’ opponents claim Trump’s base is 40 percent to 45 percent of the general electorate.
Not even close. Only half of Republicans have a “very favorable” view of Trump; and in the 2024 general election, Republicans will – at most – represent 36 percent of the electorate (based on 2020 exit poll data).
Half of 36 percent is 18 percent. This is Trump’s hardcore base. Given that 158 million Americans voted in the 2020 election, we can expect just over 28 million voters to be with Trump no matter what.
2) Biden’s Hardcore Base is Small Too, Representing Only About 14 Percent of the Electorate.
Only 39 percent of Democrats “strongly approve” of President Biden’s performance as president, and Democrats will – at most – represent about 37 percent of the overall electorate in 2024.
Thirty-nine percent of 37 percent is 14 percent. This is Biden’s hardcore base, which represents about 23 million voters.
So, let’s do a final tally. An estimated 18 percent of American voters are hardcore Trump supporters. Another 14 percent are hardcore Biden supporters. And another 10 percent of independents say they like Trump or Biden.
It all adds up to a historic opportunity for a No Labels Unity ticket in 2024.
3) The Biggest Risk Factor for Another Trump Presidency May Be Joe Biden’s Candidacy.
If the D.C. elites overstate the size of the hardcore Trump base, they radically understate Trump’s ability to beat Biden in a head-to-head matchup. They say President Biden will beat Trump because we can assume 55 percent to 60 percent of the electorate will not vote for Trump under any circumstances and will stick with Biden so long as there is no independent in the race to siphon votes from Biden.
Consider:
- In the latest RealClearPolitics national polling average, Trump leads Biden by 44.8 percent to 44.1 percent.
- The picture for Biden is much worse in swing states. A recent Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll shows Trump winning five of the top seven swing states. It also shows “voters in those states favor Trump over Biden on the economy by a 14-point margin.”
- No incumbent president since Harry Truman has won reelection with an approval rating under 40 percent. Joe Biden’s current Gallup approval rating is 40.8 percent, and last year, it dipped under 37 percent.
4) Independents Always Break Away from Presidential Incumbents
There have been four presidential elections since 1996 with an incumbent on the ballot. The incumbent lost independent voters every time. Pick any national poll released in the last two months, and Trump is clearly winning independents, in some cases by a wide margin.
That’s bad news for Biden, but it isn’t necessarily good news for Trump if a No Labels ticket is in the race in 2024 because Trump is beating Biden among independents in a head-to-head matchup.
In a multi-candidate race, many independents could ultimately view Trump as an incumbent since they already have lived through his presidency.
---
Since late 2021, No Labels has polled over 60,000 registered voters to understand the dynamics of the 2024 race, and we’ve regularly compared our results to other publicly available data.
Three fundamental findings have remained consistent over time:
- The national mood is dark, and the public has rarely been this pessimistic about the future of our country, the direction of our economy, and the ability of our current leaders to right the ship of state.
- Two-thirds of all voters don’t want a rematch of the 2020 election.
- Americans are more open to an independent presidential candidate now than ever before. In fact, since No Labels began polling and modeling this race in December 2021, the universe of voters who are open to a No Labels presidential ticket has grown by 18 percent.
Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have profound vulnerabilities that likely will not get better with time. Their respective campaigns are a house of cards that could be tipped over by a compelling independent alternative in 2024.
Despite this accumulating evidence that an independent presidential candidate could get traction in 2024, much of Washington still hasn’t caught up to where the voters are. They assume this next election will unfold much like previous ones, even though it has never been clearer that Americans are open to an independent ticket and that America needs a fundamental reset of our politics.
They also assume an independent ticket could only benefit Trump’s candidacy, ignoring the simple fact that whoever ends up on a No Labels ticket would be the biggest determinant of where they would draw votes from. In fact, we’ve already seen evidence of how different flavors of independents could have different impacts on the race. The only named alternatives to Trump and Biden are currently Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and the recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Kennedy’s presence in the race “costs Trump a narrow lead.”
So, anyone who makes the claim that a No Labels ticket would indisputably “spoil” the election in one party’s favor is just throwing things against the wall.
There’s a lot of uncertainty about what’s ahead, but we can be certain most Americans want something better in 2024 than they are likely to get from the major party presidential nominees.
We can also be confident that, in the five months until No Labels offers its ballot line to a ticket, our opponents will continue to mislead the public about our intentions and try to downplay the growing enthusiasm for a No Labels ticket.
Given Americans’ growing divisions at home and the growing danger abroad, the 2024 election needs to offer voters something better than a year-long slog, with both Trump and Biden painting apocalyptic visions of what happens to America if the other side wins.
We’ve got to get out of that cycle, and that begins with ensuring Americans have a choice to vote for a No Labels Unity ticket in 2024, if that’s what they want and the moment demands.
For years I have felt that there was a "purple party", the "majority in the middle", who could take the good parts from the left and the right and create a bi-partisan party that would lead this great country forward. I have found that in No Labels. The moment I learned of No Labels, I thought - that's MY party. And I LOVE the name No Labels (even more than my "purple party" - red and blue together, get it? LOL!) Calling it No Labels really spoke to me, because I have also felt that the "labels" we put on ourselves and each other divide people. Our egos allow us to invalidate and hurt others if we can label them as different from us. But, when we are unified, when we are one - we are more likely to more through life with compassion, empathy and charity. Let's do this!!
Time to nominate someone with ability, not perceived "electability.
I need to see our political parties working together to solve cirtical issues our country faces. The current way it is, both parties seem to think there is only a market for rancor and extremism. I am not interested in rancor and extremism. I am for thoughtful, well-reasoned argument and discussion to achieve beneficial solutions.
we have listened to survivors and watched videos of the barbaric savagery committed by Iranian backed Hamas on October 7. The Biden admin has loosened sanctions and allowed billions of dollars to flow to Iran. The policies of appeasement are not working. We need new leadership who have a plan to secure our borders and weaken our enemies, while strengthening our economy and safety here at home. Yes we need to support our allies and defeat the most heinous of Terror groups. Biden's policy of "don't" does not seem to be deterring Iran whose proxies have already attacked our personnel in Iraq and sent ballistic missiles from Yemen. We are at a juncture, where it is critical for the US to come together and unify this great country. We need leaders with backbones who will enforce our laws. Can a No Labels unity ticket take some of the proven policies of the Trump admin and combine with strong policies and leader ship that will unite the American people?
I am not a registered member of the Republican or Democratic Party. I vote based on who I feel has the strongest integrity. What I don't like today in the Republicans is their overall attitude of "our way or no way". They make fun of fellow Republicans that work with the Democrats. To me, to truly be a democracy, they have to be work across the aisles. The Republicans blame the debacle that occurred over the House Speaker on the Democrats!!! What??? A Democrat didn't start the process to oust McCarthy and they aren't going to vote for a Republican anymore than a Republican is going to vote for a Democrat. Plus, anyone that continues supporting Donald Trump and won't claim the election was not stolen has no business in Washington, D.C. Donald Trump has ruined so many lives with his lies, lies, lies, and for the life of me, I don't see how any American supports him. His continued chants of the 2020 election being stolen has given me a thought - is he a guilty dog barking the loudest? Did he steal the 2016 election from Hilary Clinton? She did have the popular vote - did he have fake electors at that time as well? Makes me wonder. So, my point. We want honesty in Washington, D.C. and everyone - regardless if Republican, Democrat, No Labels, Independent - working TOGETHER. It's can't be one way or no way! Also, the abortion issue and a ban on semi-automatic weapons should be a nation wide vote. I'm not saying take away guns - just those that rip young children to shreds in mass shootings. There is too much lobbying on these issues. It should be decided by the people! Also, I cringe everytime I hear a Republican saying they're up there working for the American people! Well, guess what Republican buddy...some of those American people are Democrats so if you are working for the American people - work for all of them and compromise!!!!
A replay of the last presidential election is offering a unique window to elect a leader who's mission will be to govern on a bipartisan basis. This is the insurance policy No Labels is working to make a reality.
I have said for more than a year that I will not vote for either Donald Trump (never Trumper) or Biden (only made that mistake once). I sincerely hope that No Labels provides a viable 3rd candidate. Otherwise, I'm staying home.
I think that this is a most important movement and idea as our Country can no longer be held hostage by the extremist, minority views that dominate both the Democrat and Republican parties.
Honestly, I've followed No Labels because of David Walker, former Comptroller General of the USA is involved. I heard Mr. Walker speak in 2010 at an AICPA Financial Planning Conference regarding our fiscal positon. No one has listened to him as he tried to explain through media and publications. People can read the financial statements of hte USA where the auditor has clearly stated "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path", year after year. You can read the statements from the trustees on Social Security and Medicare. You can read GAO's high list. Read the news of failing banks, investors not wanting to take the risk on Treasury securities, etc. If we have discuss government funding every month now, the writing is in the wall.
If the status quo is to remain this last half of this decade will get very rough.If No Labels is to succeed it needs to come out now. Enough of the rhetoric, which is so easy, but actual plans. My support in time and contributions depends on clearly outlined plans for all Americans to hear, if it has to be brutally honest, then it is time, we as adults, bear the news and make change to the wreck that is DC.
all i can say is ive never had a political party to support. No Labels is the closest ive felt to having one, you have my support and vote if you get on the ballot. there is no way my vote is going to either Biden or trump, honestly both should not be allowed back in any political office again. thanks for the real numbers too, i knew something was off with the ones i was seeing in most of the papers as most are bought and paid for by one of the 2 big parties. Funny how neither the repiublican or democrat model for america was what our founding fathers actually wanted for this great country..
I will never again vote for Trump, Hillary, or Biden. I will vote for anyone else.
It is time for an alternative to the gridlock of our divisive government. It just makes common sense to put forth a slate of candidates that are moderate and focused on solutions to our most pressing issues.
IT'S TIME FOR A CHANGE!
No Labels' analysis is compelling, but its conclusion, that a third-party ticket can win, only make sense when No Labels has secure ballot positions in most swing States.
So far, No Labels has only12 States. Let's get moving!!!
While I voted for Biden in 2020, and will never vote for Trump (or any MAGA supporter), it is disappointing our current choices are two old white guys. I'm 74, but we need new vigor and new thinking. We have lost our morale consciousness and courage to do the hard right thing - save our democracy and stop the slide to autocracy. During previous perilous times, we had leaders (not necessarily that we totally agreed with them), who stood up and served the best interests of the country. Where are these "leaders" now?! Why don't normal Republicans stand up and repudiate Trump?! We can and need to be better! Our enemies are taking advantage of this dysfunction.
Well said! Who we gonna run?
I agree with everything in this memo! Very dissatisfied with a Biden-Trump rematch. Either will be bad for America. One argument we're going to get is that if we don't get a MAJORITY of Electoral Votes the decision will go to the House with one vote per state. Have we done the Electoral College analysis?